Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-29

Posted by on Jan 29, 2012 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Download S&P 500 Sequential Sell Data

Posted by on Jan 28, 2012 in Sequential | 0 comments

I added a new feature.  You can download this weeks Sequential Sell data for the S&P 500 below.  The file contains highs, stop loss, and risk data.  Check it out and let me know if you like the information.

Sequential Sell s&P 500

Combining Sequential Signals and Gartley Patterns

Posted by on Jan 28, 2012 in Pattern Recognition, Sequential, Short, technical analysis, Trades, Uncategorized | 0 comments

I saw these two charts in my scan of the Russell 2000. Both are examples of how I like to combine separate signals, which in this case is a combination of a Sequential sell and a bearish Gartley pattern.

So would I trade either of these?  No, because the volume is not confirming the signals.  Ideally, I would like to see volume shrinking at the highs and both of these charts have very strong volume near the highs.  Sure, the trade might work, but I like to have volume confirming all of my bets.  This link is a video of Tom O’Brien and it shows how I like to use volume with pattern recognition.

MUSA Sequential-Gartley Sell

IPHI Sequential Gartley Sell

Russell 1000 Sequential Breakout Watchlist

Posted by on Jan 26, 2012 in Sequential | 0 comments

This gallery list of Sequential breakouts was taken from the Russell 1000.

I have also included an output list of all the Sequential Breakouts on the Russell 1000.  I have also included the risk associated with each stock.  The number is the percentage above the breakout level.  -10 means that the current price is 10% above the Sequential Sell stop loss.  I use the negative sign because I am typically looking for prices that are below the stop loss.

Symbol Sell Risk
BXP -0.01
RPM -0.28
SCG -0.36
SCI -0.36
CBG -0.37
KLAC -0.46
LH -0.52
D -0.59
COH -0.64
DTE -1.38
PRGO -1.82
MSFT -1.93
FRT -2.05
SRE -2.08
IBM -2.08
INTC -2.36
FFIV -2.67
NKE -2.70
JBL -2.83
CNW -2.87
DNR -3.12
ASBC -3.38
MSM -3.43
EWBC -3.44
PLL -3.81
DOV -4.31
WPO -4.31
LSTR -5.38
STR -5.39
FTI -5.44
CLR -5.64
DHI -6.80
NI -6.93
AMT -7.43
EL -8.43
VRSK -9.53
JCP -10.81

SWI chart

Posted by on Jan 26, 2012 in Long, Short, technical analysis, Trades | 0 comments

Thought I would try out Worden’s widget.  I picked SWI because I own it and was disturbed by the action today.  I hate it when long positions reverse like this.  On the good side, I bought the QID yesterday as a hedge for the expected pullback.

 

Trade to watch

Posted by on Jan 24, 2012 in Sequential, Short, technical analysis, Trades | 0 comments

Trade idea. Short ELON on sequential retest

Here is a trade to watch. The equity is ELON and it broke below the Sequential buy stop-loss in early November. It is moving up with very light volume and if that continues, I would short it at 6.12 with a short stop-loss at 6.50. Here is a breakdown of the money management plan. It assumes a 100K trading stake and putting 1% of that capital at risk.

Sequential Breakdowns: Trading with the trend

Posted by on Jan 24, 2012 in Instructional, Sequential, Short, technical analysis | 0 comments

The Demark methods are counter-trend by nature and should be used that way.  However, it is also possible to use similar methods to trade with the larger trend.  I like to call these Sequential Breakdowns (bearish charts) and Sequential Breakouts (bullish charts).  The setup is pretty simple.

  1. A countdown is completed giving a  well-defined entry and stop-loss level.
  2. The price breaks through the stop-loss level indicating that the previous trend will continue.
  3. A counter-trend bounce occurs resulting in a retest of the breakout or breakdown levels.
  4. Low volume retests initiate a short position for breakdowns and a long position for breakouts.

Sequential Breakdown of QUAD

Here is a recent example of a breakdown and a failed retest.  The chart is for QUAD, which has a very bearish long-term chart.  It is always unwise to blindly go long a simple Sequential buy signal when such a strong bearish trend exists.  The best way to trade it is to wait for a breakdown and short the retest.  QUAD gave you two opportunities.  Notice that the previous low (top of the shaded channel) now becomes the stop-loss for the short position.